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Originally posted by nightguy
It's a broken business model. Probably not as broken as Sirius though who put all their eggs in one basket with Stern by paying him a bunch of money and then granting him permission to sell his stock options. There was talk of them merging but I can't see how that would help either one at this point.

The worst will be when HD sets drop in price in a few months. There are already many stations broadcasting in HD (sounds way better than satellite), and many with a secondary station already. And it's free, free, free for the consumer and a minimal investment for the station.

Benefits:

AM digital will have FM-like audio quality allowing for new and innovative programming using music formats.

FM digital will have CD-like audio quality. Static-free and crystal clear reception. Signal fades, static, hiss and pops will be a thing of the past.

Wireless data services to include On-Demand audio will be available to consumers. On-demand audio allows for the streaming of audio content providing more information on station programs, news, weather, and traffic-all at the touch of a button!

Other wireless data services include the display of artist and song information, mobile commerce options and much more.

http://www.ibiquity.com/hdradio/hdradio_hdstations.htm

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Originally posted by JL_SS


I haven't reseached HD radio but does it address the censorship issue? The big deal with Stern going to Sirius was that he could do an uncensored show (regardless of the fact that Sirius IS now censoring their shows through coporate policy guidelines). XM is not but some of the audience draw is for the shows that cannot be broadcast on freely available stations.

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Originally posted by nightguy

The worst will be when HD sets drop in price in a few months. There are already many stations broadcasting in HD (sounds way better than satellite), and many with a secondary station already. And it's free, free, free for the consumer and a minimal investment for the station.

Benefits:

AM digital will have FM-like audio quality allowing for new and innovative programming using music formats.

FM digital will have CD-like audio quality. Static-free and crystal clear reception. Signal fades, static, hiss and pops will be a thing of the past.



[/url]

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Originally posted by Warzau


But what good is the reception when the quality of the material is still garbage. I don't remember other than AM news radio, that I listened to FM radio all the stations are horrible. Playing heavy rotation of the same crap you see on MTV ( which is another story)

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Originally posted by Warzau
But what good is the reception when the quality of the material is still garbage. I don't remember other than AM news radio, that I listened to FM radio all the stations are horrible. Playing heavy rotation of the same crap you see on MTV ( which is another story)

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Originally posted by Warzau
XM, Sirius,FM it does get repetative. At least when I burn my MP3 disc it's something I like..

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Originally posted by kunB
I wonder what will happen to those people who have XM radio factory installed on their cars when XM announces Chapter 11. I guess we will be stuck with XM as long as we have the car.

With an XM satellite radio, can I get sirius radio in it ?

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Originally posted by nightguy


IMO, satellite providers won't necessarily always have a free pass. It's possible that the FCC will have jurisdiction although I'm not really sure how they will accomplish that. The most ridiculous part of not having FCC regulation is that payola and plugola are completely legal. Isn't it interesting how a few commercial radio groups are being scrutinized for alleged payola violations ?

That corporate policy is either to show that they can self-police and show they don't need a watchdog or more likely, so that Stern has an envelope to push. Without it, I don't see how they show has a lifespan of more than a few months.

HD does not require a subscription, just a new set, so the same FCC rules and regulations apply.

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Originally posted by dipersp
Being an XM subscriber for about 2 years now (And loving it), I see XM and Sirius merging at some point. Both systems will play on the same receivers because they'll just broadcast the same stuff to both systems.

As for AM/FM, forget it. Like everyone already said, the playlists are garbage and it's FREE for a reason - 20 minutes of commercials for 5 minutes of music.

Let's use cable as an example, since we already brought it up. I know here in Philly, all my broadcast stations are now HDTV - ABC, NBC, CBS, etc. So does that mean I'm going to get rid of my cable? Not likely. . . How many years (Months?!) before satellite radio pulls a cable tv and starts running commercials? Not long.

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Originally posted by dipersp
As for AM/FM, forget it. Like everyone already said, the playlists are garbage and it's FREE for a reason - 20 minutes of commercials for 5 minutes of music.

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Originally posted by dipersp
Let's use cable as an example, since we already brought it up. I know here in Philly, all my broadcast stations are now HDTV - ABC, NBC, CBS, etc. So does that mean I'm going to get rid of my cable? Not likely

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Originally posted by JL_SS


I just find it ironic that Stern jumped for censorship issues and then gets saddled with it again to a lesser extent. I had heard that Sirius enacted that policy because they do not have active channel blocking. XM does not censor and pretty much allows their shock jock equivalents to do whatever they want because they do have active channel blocking.

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Originally posted by dipersp
Being an XM subscriber for about 2 years now (And loving it), I see XM and Sirius merging at some point. Both systems will play on the same receivers because they'll just broadcast the same stuff to both systems.

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Originally posted by td284
Bad business model or not, it's all about the programming. My service is up in a few months and I'm not sure I'll renew. Lots of stations and nothing to listen to--no NPR, no new music, no lounge music, just warmed over junk you'd hear on FM. Where's the creativity? Lots of unrealized potential.

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Originally posted by BostonX I couldn't agree more. After a year as a subscriber I must say that the novelty has worn off; I'll hear the same song by a certain artist week after week, as though they have no other songs. The "Punk Rock" station plays lame mall-punk and Social Distortion almost exclusively. The only stations that are consistently good are the rootsy ones like the Reggae station and the one that plays old school Country ("Hank's Place"!).
They should take as an example the diverse programming of internet stations like KEXP or, better yet, hire some program directors from some of the nation's great college stations.

By the way, you don't have to listen to the Christian station to have an aversion to the "F-bomb" or crass programming by the likes of Howard Stern.

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Originally posted by cfarm
XM and Sirius are far, far from going bankrupt. I believe XM is even predicting cash flow break even later this year. They have both reached critical mass, IMO, and they've had the naysayers predicting their demise from the very beginning.

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Originally posted by cfarm
XM and Sirius are far, far from going bankrupt. I believe XM is even predicting cash flow break even later this year. They have both reached critical mass, IMO, and they've had the naysayers predicting their demise from the very beginning.

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Originally posted by anjan
@ nightguy

And how would they sell the "advertise more on some channels" now? As if endless XM ads were not enough, they will be advertising on some of the more popular channels now. Maybe they'll still say there's no advertising and label it "promotions" :2: :p

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Originally posted by anjan

ROFL! :21: And what are you basing this on? Let me make the purpose of this thread clear - Its not whether you like their programming or whether they have the best technology. In the end if you don't make money, you close.

As someone who's finishing the first year of MBA from a Top 20 business school, let me tell you that nothing in their financial statement or 10-K filing shows a promising prospect. The economy does not run on preference or predictions. Until it I see it in the company's financials, it doesn't amount to much. They have extraordinary (in a bad sense) ratios with no concrete proof of changes to business plans or scenario to explain trend changes.

Now, pray, what have you come across that makes you assert that they will cover a financial gap of over $9.4 Billion over the last five years?

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Originally posted by nightguy


When Panero resigned, the dirty laundry was pretty much put on the line. Of course they've been fibbing about subscriber numbers since the beginning. But keep telling people to rebel against corporate radio by instead listening to other corporate radio that's essentially the same product except that you don't have to change the channel as you traverse the country and maybe you'll have good luck.

[quote][B]Is it a coincidence that after-market satellite receivers are dropping in price, and will probably be free soon ? I doubt it.

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Is it a coincidence that after-market satellite receivers are dropping in price, and will probably be free soon ? I doubt it.

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Originally posted by cfarm
Fibbing or being overly optimistic? Have to be careful with one's words. The SEC frowns on some of them.

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Originally posted by nightguy


Careful of what ?

XM has overstated their subscriptions by counting those rolled in with new car purchases, subscriptions not yet activated or ever activated, and fleet sales. Later when the subscriptions were cancelled, some were counted as late as 18 months after the date of cancellation.

I must admit I only have a bachelor's degree and was lousy at math. So, maybe 1 does equal 2, 3 or 4 or whatever they need to cook up for their benefit.

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Originally posted by JL_SS


I question where your data is coming from. You mentioned Hugh Panero resigning in an earlier thread. As far as I know he still is with XM. Sirius has been called out on the fact that they count unsold cars in the their subs but XM only counts activated subscriptions. XM does however, count people on promotional plans as subscribers. I think you are lumping both companies into one.

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Originally posted by anjan
Good questions and since we are doing this day-in day-out, let me answer them as best as I can.

First, Amazon is a completely different story. It still isn't considered a good stock to own because profitability is a different beast and their return to shareholder's equity has always been poor. Still, every 10-k filed with the SEC had clearly measurable initiatives which helped calculate the predicted solvency of the company over the next few quarters. And none of their performance figures were nearly as bad as XMSR. I use the Wall Street Journal which is subscription only but you can try Multex Investor (www.reuters.com) and they have excellent financial data. Go into the Ratios for the two companies and compare. You don't need to be a high paid analysis to see the difference in scales of calamitous performance.

Still, Jim Cramer picks XMSR as one of the
worst stocks to own. Also, the biggest indicator was Pierce Roberts' resignation and what he highlighted. Forget the claim that XM is in trouble and dark clouds are looming. He points to crippling internal costs that are spiralling out of control. If you compare AMZN and XMSR and look at Revenues, SG&A (Selling/General/Admin. Expenses), and Gross Profit columns, you'll get the idea.

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Originally posted by anjan

ROFL! :21: And what are you basing this on? Let me make the purpose of this thread clear - Its not whether you like their programming or whether they have the best technology. In the end if you don't make money, you close.

As someone who's finishing the first year of MBA from a Top 20 business school, let me tell you that nothing in their financial statement or 10-K filing shows a promising prospect. The economy does not run on preference or predictions. Until it I see it in the company's financials, it doesn't amount to much. They have extraordinary (in a bad sense) ratios with no concrete proof of changes to business plans or scenario to explain trend changes.

Now, pray, what have you come across that makes you assert that they will cover a financial gap of over $9.4 Billion over the last five years?

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Originally posted by finesse92


Are you serious?

These "experts" are driving the stock down because they missed the boat and trying to jump on at a low price.

As far as "cash flow break even" (CFBE) Sirius is on track to reach that point by the end of the 3rd quarter this year and XM by years end.

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Originally posted by cfarm

XM is still projected to go cash positive by next year per the most pessimistic estimates I've read. I don't know what SAC should be for sat radio. DBS, by comparison, is ~$650 per. What are you suggesting they should be and what are you using for a barometer?

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Originally posted by anjan


Excellent point. While XMSR is technically supposed to, a big supposed there :), have positive operating income that hardly makes it profitable. Because of its mountainous debts, all of its profits will be erased and then some. So, because of the front heavy investment model, they have to reach a critical mass to achieve the kind of cash flow from subscription to really go into the black. And therein lies the problem. The same problem is plauging GM. You have to make a profit at a per unit level. If you don't, you will not turn a profit overall. And I think that's what Pierce Roberts was driving at.

I'm not sure about DBS' viability because I haven't followed their business model and don't have enough data points to assess their viability. Its safe to assume that they will have same problems if their SG&A overshadows Accounts Receivables from subscription.

And all of this again is not specific to satellite radio. I already mentioned GM - there's Microsoft and XBox; Sony and Playstation....classic examples. Those units have never made money because the customer acquisition cost is so high, they never can go into the black.

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Originally posted by anjan
I wish I could give you access to the financials where it shows the overall debt acquired from investors and non-investor. Even without that, Yahoo must be listing the Financial Ratios...

Debt to Equity Ratio (lower the better)
XMSR: 13.08
Industry: 0.64
Sector: 0.78
S&P500: 0.58

This shows that they are also much, much worse off than their peers in the same industry and sector (Broadcasting and Cable TV)

Interest Coverage (higher better)
XMSR: -5.39
Industry: 2.94
Sector: 8.69
S&P500: 13.76

Companies with high levels of interest coverage are better able to carry more debt.

Profitability - EBITD 5 Yr Avg
XMSR: -9,400.94
Industy: 3.90
Sector: 21.04
S&P500: 20.07

Need I say more about this :D

Now comes the question of the SAC and the estimate. To arrive at the NFV of the cash flow you have to use the Discount Rate and Growth%. Both are not only estimates as XMSR accountants see it, its an estimate. And the numbers above are supposed to illustrate that the scale of losses make it very difficult to predict future results. A growth rate of 9% vs 9.5% are vastly different. So, in essence, I place no faith in any estimate from a company that's bleeding from all orifices :2:

Good discussion, BTW :4:

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Originally posted by anjan


Are you serious? "Experts" are driving down the stock price? What world are you from really? You mean to say XMSR has been performing well? Do you even know what financial accounting/statements are? This is a boat I want to see you on financially. Put half of your life earnings into this if you are so certain that numbers don't mean anything. I don't care if its going to be profitable 5 years from now. The question is of a good investment which it isn't right now. And it doesn't take an "expert" to deduce that from financials and 10Ks.

I think your CFBE gave your grasp of finance away :2: Are we just making up acronyms as we go along? What you are talking about is probably EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization) which is a good measure. However, since XMSR has bled $9.4 Billion it will take them a loooooong time to catch up and go into the black.

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